The Impact of the Free Nutritious Meal Program on Food Prices in West Sulawesi

Suriadi Suriadi; Tri Frida Suryati; Muh. Ilhamuddin Dahri; Supriadi Supriadi; Jeffriansyah DSA

doi:10.55927/ministal.v5i3.26

Authors

Suriadi Suriadi Universitas Muhammadiyah Mamuju
Tri Frida Suryati Universitas Muhammadiyah Mamuju
Muh. Ilhamuddin Dahri Universitas Muhammadiyah Mamuju
Supriadi Supriadi Universitas Muhammadiyah Mamuju
Jeffriansyah DSA Universitas Muhammadiyah Mamuju

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/ministal.v5i3.26

Keywords:

Free Nutritious Meal, Food Inflation, Public Procurement, Demand-Pull, West Sulawesi

Abstract

This study investigates the economic impact of the newly implemented Free Nutritious Meal (Makan Bergizi Gratis / MBG) program on local food price inflation in West Sulawesi, Indonesia. Despite being designed to combat the province’s critical stunting prevalence (35.4% in 2024), the program represents a massive demand shock in a region heavily dependent on food imports. Using a deductive-causal quantitative framework, we analyze monthly time-series data from January 2020 to March 2026 (75 observations) using Multiple Linear Regression (OLS) to isolate the program's effect. The independent variables include the monthly MBG budget execution, national food inflation, a religious holiday dummy, and the Farmer Terms of Trade (NTP) for West Sulawesi. The empirical results reveal that the MBG program has a positive and statistically significant impact on the local food price index (beta = 0.055, p = 0.008). This indicates that for every 1 billion IDR increase in monthly MBG budget execution, the food price index rises by 0.055 points, corroborating the demand-pull inflation theory. In contrast, national food inflation and seasonal holiday shocks are absorbed by other factors, while local supply-side conditions remain highly influential. These findings suggest a crucial policy paradox: while the program successfully improves child nutrition, it inadvertently creates demand-pull inflationary pressure, eroding the purchasing power of low-income families.

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